Capital Market Assumptions

Interactive 10-year return forecasts based on our proprietary "Regime Change" framework. Adjust the macro inputs to see how asset class expectations shift.

UPDATED: Q4 2025

Macro Inputs (10Y Avg)

US CPI INFLATION2.5%

Base case: 2.5%. Higher inflation favors real assets and value equities.

REAL GDP GROWTH2%

Base case: 2.0%. Higher growth favors equities and credit spreads.

GLOBAL EQUITIES
7.5%
Annualized Nominal Return
PRIVATE CREDIT
9.2%
Annualized Nominal Return
US TREASURIES
4.5%
Annualized Nominal Return
REAL ASSETS
6.8%
Annualized Nominal Return
"In a regime of higher volatility, the premium for liquidity will rise, while the diversification benefit of bonds will remain structurally impaired."